Policy Decisions and Data Releases Set to Drive Market Volatility
Interest Rates & Inflation Snapshot
| Region | Interest Rate | Inflation |
| UK | 4.00% | 3.6% |
| Eurozone | 2.15% | 2.2% |
| United States | 3.75% | 3.0% |
Overview
Markets head into a busy week dominated by central bank decisions and key economic data across the UK, Eurozone, and United States. In the UK, attention centres on the labour market, inflation, and the Bank of England’s policy decision, all of which will shape near-term expectations for Sterling.
In the Eurozone, business activity data and the European Central Bank meeting will be closely watched for signals on economic momentum and policy direction. Meanwhile, in the US, employment, consumer spending, and inflation releases are likely to drive near-term Dollar sentiment and influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
Overall, volatility may pick up as markets digest policy guidance and growth signals, with currencies particularly sensitive to any surprises relative to expectations.
United Kingdom
| Day | Data Print | What is it? | Previous & Consensus | Market Impact |
| Tuesday 16th | ILO Unemployment Rate | Measures the number of unemployed workers as a percentage of the total civilian labour force. A key indicator of labour market conditions. | Previous: 5.0% Consensus: 5.1% | An increase suggests slowing labour market momentum and would typically weigh on GBP. A lower reading would be supportive for Sterling. |
| Wednesday 17th | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | A leading indicator of inflation, measuring changes in the price of goods and services. | Previous YoY: 3.6% Consensus: N/A | The UK inflation target is 2%. Higher inflation usually supports interest rate expectations, but with the Bank of England expected to cut rates, inflation is expected to continue drifting closer to target. |
| Thursday 18th | Interest Rate Decision | Bank of England policy decision providing guidance on economic outlook and monetary policy. | Previous: 4.00% Consensus: 3.75% | A rate cut would likely weaken GBP, as lower yields reduce its attractiveness to foreign investors. |
| Friday 19th | Retail Sales | Measures changes in the total value of goods sold at the retail level. A key indicator of consumer spending. | Previous: 0.2% Consensus: 1.6% | Strong retail sales are typically bullish for GBP, as consumer spending is a major driver of UK economic growth. |
Eurozone
| Day | Data Print | What is it? | Previous & Consensus | Market Impact |
| Tuesday 16th | HCOB Composite PMI | A leading indicator of private sector activity across manufacturing and services in the Eurozone. | Previous: 52.8 Consensus: N/A Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 → 49.9 Services PMI: 53.6 → 53.9 | Readings above 50 indicate economic expansion. Current levels suggest the private sector is performing reasonably well, which is supportive for the Euro. |
| Thursday 18th | Interest Rate Decision | European Central Bank policy decision and outlook on the Eurozone economy. | Previous: 2.15% Consensus: 2.15% | With rates expected to remain unchanged, volatility may be limited. However, any surprise shift higher would likely support the Euro via improved yield appeal. |
United States
| Day | Data Print | What is it? | Previous & Consensus | Market Impact |
| Tuesday 16th | Non-Farm Payrolls | Measures the number of jobs added in the US economy excluding agriculture. One of the most influential US data releases. | Previous: 119k Consensus: N/A | Strong job creation is bullish for the USD. A weaker print may signal slowing economic momentum and weigh on the Dollar. |
| Tuesday 16th | Retail Sales | Measures changes in the total value of goods sold at the retail level. A leading indicator of consumer demand. | Previous YoY: 4.3% Previous MoM: 0.2% Consensus MoM: 0.2% | Higher retail sales support the USD, reflecting strong consumer spending and economic resilience. |
| Thursday 18th | Consumer Price Index (CPI) | A key measure of inflation in the US economy. | Previous: 3.0% Consensus: 3.2% | The US inflation target is 2%. Rising inflation may support the USD by increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to reassess the timing of future rate cuts. |
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