Jackson Hole Countdown: Will Inflation Tip the Scales?
Summary A data heavy week lies ahead, culminating in the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Markets are poised for significant FX moves around UK CPI and activity data, FOMC minutes and Chair Powell’s address, and President Lagarde’s remarks alongside Euro Area PMIs. The near term direction for USD, GBP, and EUR will hinge on whether…
Read MoreKey Economic Data and Political Moves Set to Drive FX Markets This Week
Interest Rates & Inflation Region Interest Rate Inflation UK 4.00% 3.6% EU 2.15% 2.0% US 4.50% 2.7% Last week in FX markets: The pound experienced notable volatility, with GBP/USD edging higher amid firmer UK data suggesting an uptick in economic resilience. Stronger-than-expected inflation and employment signals helped buoy Sterling against the US dollar, as markets…
Read MoreRates on Hold, Markets on Edge: Trade Deals, Inflation and Fed Pressure in Focus
Key Dates & Policy Updates UK EU US Major News Highlights Trade & Politics Equities & Commodities FX Forecasts & Market Outlook GBP/USD GBP/EUR EUR/USD & USD Summary Table Region Inflation Rate Decision Policy Outlook FX/Near-Term Forecast UK CPI 3.6% (June) 4.25% held No cut until at least Sept GBP/USD weak; GBP/EUR mean reversion to…
Read MoreDollar on the Back Foot as Political Risks Rise
GBP: Trade Deal with the U.S. Supports the Pound The pound strengthened last week, supported by the announcement of a UK–U.S. trade agreement. The deal reduced tariffs on British automotive and aerospace exports, boosting optimism around UK trade and economic prospects. Sterling also benefited from broader dollar weakness. GBP/USD climbed from 1.3377 to 1.3726 over…
Read MoreTense Times: Data, Dovish Shifts, and Global Risks Drive FX Sentiment
GBP: Steady for now, but data and BoE commentary keep the market on edge Sterling held firm at the start of the week, supported by the Bank of England’s cautious tone. Despite keeping rates unchanged at 4.25% last Thursday, policymakers continue to signal that any move lower will be slow and data-dependent. Governor Andrew Bailey…
Read MoreKey Central Bank Decisions and Inflation Data Set the Tone
GBP Sterling saw muted movement early in the week, with GBP/USD drifting near 1.3545 and GBP/EUR retracing from 1.1775 back below 1.1730. Caution remains ahead of a key week for UK data and policy. Markets widely expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at 4.25% on Thursday. However, signs of softness in the…
Read MoreUK Labour Market Cools; Government Spending Review to Shape Sterling Outlook
GBP The Pound Sterling weakened to around 1.3456 against the US Dollar during European trading on Tuesday. This came after the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported a slowdown in the labour market for the three months ending April. New jobs added totalled 89,000, down from 112,000 in the previous quarter, while the unemployment rate…
Read MoreSterling Steady as UK Trade Talks Brighten, but Growth Concerns Linger
GBP Sterling traded within a relatively narrow range last week, showing modest upward momentum early on before surrendering gains towards the end of the week. A key supportive factor was renewed optimism surrounding the UK-India trade deal. Reports suggested significant progress had been made in negotiations, raising hopes that a long-awaited agreement could soon be…
Read MoreRate Decisions Loom: Markets Brace for BoE Cut and Fed Signals
GBP Sterling eased off recent highs against the US dollar last week. GBP/USD touched a peak around 1.3445 but slipped towards the 1.3250 level by Friday, as a stronger US dollar and softer UK economic data weighed on sentiment. UK services PMI for April came in just below the 50 mark, indicating flat to contracting…
Read MoreSterling Steady as Dollar Falters: Markets Eye Key PMI Data and Central Bank Speeches
GBP The British pound has maintained its strength, recently reaching a seven-month high against the US dollar. This resilience is largely due to a weakening dollar, driven by renewed concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Donald Trump’s intensified criticism of Chair Jerome Powell. In the UK, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set…
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