Trump targets ‘’the largest deal ever made’’ with China
US DOLLAR The Dollar has kicked off the week strong following news over the weekend that the US has agreed to suspend the imposition of new tariffs on China. The Dollar Index rose as high as 96.61, its best level since June 21st, as US yields and equity futures also rallied. Over the weekend President…
Read MoreMPC keep interest rates on hold as probability of a cut jumps to 20%
STERLING The Bank of England kept rates on hold on Thursday via a 9-0 vote but cut growth forecasts which initially weighed on the pound, with the market now pricing in a 20% chance of an interest rate cut this year. Still, Sterling recovered into the weekend and has been trading at a two week…
Read MoreBoE to meet on Thursday
STERLING The Bank of England meet on Thursday for their latest rate setting meeting and this could keep movements in the pound to a minimum before hand – GBP/USD was flat at 1.2590 this morning, although has dropped to 1.2550 this afternoon. Economists are predicting a 9-0 vote by the MPC although there is the…
Read MoreECB hold rates until 2020
EURO The European Central Bank pushed back their rate guidance on Thursday and pledged to remain on hold at least through the first half of 2020. The Euro rallied in response as the Governing Council stopped short of opening the door to a rate cut. EUR/USD made further gains on Friday and closed above $1.13…
Read MoreHeightened fears of a global recession after Trump threatens Mexico with tariffs
With factory activity contracting in most of Asia last month, driven by the US – China trade war, central banks are being forced to review monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve potentially being forced to cut interest rates more than once this year. To compound recessionary fears, President Trump not only threatened to levy new…
Read MoreSterling under pressure as May fights for her political life
STERLING GBP/USD was little changed this morning having touched a fresh four-month low on Friday at $1.2711 on Brexit woes. Cross party talks to reach a Brexit deal that could make it through parliament collapsed on Friday although weekend press reports have suggested Theresa May plans to make a ‘bold offer’ to secure a deal.…
Read MoreCross-party Brexit talks falling apart
STERLING Last week was a choppy one for the Pound as investors reacted to progress, and later the lack of, in the cross-party Brexit talks. The prime minister has consistently refused to entertain a second public vote, insisting she is focused on ‘’delivering the result of the first referendum’’ meaning the chances of a deal…
Read MoreTrump threatens China with increased tariffs
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index inched higher yesterday morning to 97.6 having declined on Friday’s jobs report as soft wage data overshadowed a strong non-farm payrolls print (+263,000) with the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a 50-year low. The Trump administration continued to raise the temperature in trade tensions with China yesterday, with top trade…
Read MoreSuper Thursday at the Bank of England
STERLING Brexit related developments haven taken somewhat of a backseat for the pound of late although GBP/USD dipped below 1.29 last week to a two-month low of 1.2865. The pair has inched higher overnight despite warnings from rating agencies on Friday that the UK rating is still at risk from a no-deal Brexit. Looking ahead,…
Read MoreCorbyn to be May’s next scapegoat?
STERLING Sterling continues to be driven by Brexit related developments and having flirted with $1.32 in the middle of last week, has drifted back towards the 1.30. Investors have welcomed what appears to be a reduced likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and a higher probability of a softer Brexit although this is still some way…
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