Time running out for May
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index nursed a minor decline this morning although has maintained the 97.0 handle. The index touched a near three-week high on Friday at 97.27 after Michigan Sentiment and new home sales surpassed expectations. There was minimal reaction meanwhile to a slight downward revision to Q4 GDP on Thursday. Retail sales for…
Read MoreUS bond yield inverts
US DOLLAR Treasury yields pulled back from 15-month lows as investors reassessed the risks of a sharper downturn in the global economy. When the 10-year yield is lower than the three-year yield, it tends to signal that people are locking up money longer term because they fear a slowdown in business profits and its accompanying…
Read MoreMay pinning hopes on the DUP to unlock parliament stalemate
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index surrendered the 97 handle last week, weighed by a flurry of weaker-than-expected data releases including CPI, PPI and industrial production. This may factor into this Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision although most economists expect a wait-and-see stance after they dropped language in January that signalled further hikes were necessary. On the…
Read MoreTrump continues criticism of Fed monetary policy
US DOLLAR After a soft start to last week, the US Dollar finished strongly with the Dollar Index hitting a one-week high on Friday at 96.55. Thursday’s stronger than expected GDP data was the main catalyst after the Greenback had shown little reaction to relatively mundane comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Comments from US…
Read MoreMay delays meaningful vote until 12th March
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index edged lower last week, hitting a two-week low on Wednesday at 96.29 but has started this week around 96.4. There was some mild volatility after the FOMC minutes while a pretty dismal retail sales report provided a weight and prompted a number of banks to trim their Q1 GDP forecasts.…
Read MoreTrump comes up $4.3 billion short for wall funding
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index spent most of last week with a 97 handle but surrendered it before the weekend after US retail sales dropped the most since September 2009, prompting a flurry of growth downgrades for the coming quarters. Elsewhere, lawmakers appear to have avoided another government shutdown for the time being and more…
Read MoreUS-China trade talks set to resume
STERLING The Pound hit its lowest level against the US Dollar in over two-weeks on Thursday at 1.2854 after the Bank of England voted 9-0 to leave the Bank Rate on hold at 0.75%. Growth forecast’s they predicted only three months ago were revised lower from 1.7% to 1.2%. The Pound strengthened during the press…
Read More‘Plan B?’
STERLING GBP/USD is nursing a small loss in Europe this morning having risen to a three-month high on Friday at 1.3214. Investors continue to fret around the risk of a no-deal Brexit with reports over the weekend suggesting Ireland have ruled out any changes to the backstop. Chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, has…
Read MoreMay’s progress limited to the removal of £65 fee for EU citizens
STERLING With no hope of cross-party talks, Theresa May now needs to get the EU to rewrite the Irish backstop, something that the bloc has repeatedly refused to do. Yesterday’s statement to the Commons showed that there has been no substantial progress since last week’s historic vote, where the PM lost by a landslide 230…
Read More’Meaningful vote’ to take place tomorrow
STERLING Sterling rose last week with GBP/USD topping out at a seven-week high on Friday at 1.2867. Gains on Friday were spurred by reports that cabinet ministers were looking to delay Brexit. Parliament are still scheduled to vote on Theresa May’s deal tomorrow with weekend press reports suggesting a Plan-B is being drawn up as…
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