Inflation Falls. Tariffs Rise. Volatility Ahead.

Interest Rates & Inflation

UK
• Interest Rate: 3.75%
• Inflation: 3%

EU
• Interest Rate: 2.15%
• Inflation: 1.7%

US
• Interest Rate: 3.75%
• Inflation: 2.4%

Eurozone – Key Events

Wednesday 25th – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

Previous: 1.7%
Consensus: 1.7%

HICP measures changes in prices across a basket of goods and services in the Euro area.

Market view:
• Little volatility expected if in line.
• A lower reading could pressure the Euro (cooling inflation signals weaker growth).
• A higher reading may support the Euro.

US – Key Events

Thursday 26th – Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 206K
Consensus: 211K

Measures new claims for unemployment benefits.

Market view:
Higher claims generally point to a cooling labour market and may weigh on the USD.

Friday 27th – Producer Price Index (ex food & energy)

Previous (YoY): 3.3%
MoM Expected: -0.4%

Measures producer-level price changes, excluding volatile food and energy components.

Market view:
If inflation softens further, it could add to USD weakness as demand signals fade.

Market Updates

• UK inflation fell from 3.4% to 3%
• UK unemployment at a 5-year high (5.2%)
• Markets pricing in two UK rate cuts
• UK expected to be heavily impacted by renewed US tariffs
• US tariffs reportedly increased from 10% to 15%
• UK & EU equities under pressure amid tariff uncertainty
• Trump expected to meet Xi Jinping between March 31st – April 2nd

If you have upcoming currency requirements and would like expert guidance on navigating the markets, contact one of our consultants at 020 3876 5432.