Posts Tagged ‘BREXIT’
MPC keep interest rates on hold as probability of a cut jumps to 20%
STERLING The Bank of England kept rates on hold on Thursday via a 9-0 vote but cut growth forecasts which initially weighed on the pound, with the market now pricing in a 20% chance of an interest rate cut this year. Still, Sterling recovered into the weekend and has been trading at a two week…
Read MoreBoE to meet on Thursday
STERLING The Bank of England meet on Thursday for their latest rate setting meeting and this could keep movements in the pound to a minimum before hand – GBP/USD was flat at 1.2590 this morning, although has dropped to 1.2550 this afternoon. Economists are predicting a 9-0 vote by the MPC although there is the…
Read MoreECB hold rates until 2020
EURO The European Central Bank pushed back their rate guidance on Thursday and pledged to remain on hold at least through the first half of 2020. The Euro rallied in response as the Governing Council stopped short of opening the door to a rate cut. EUR/USD made further gains on Friday and closed above $1.13…
Read MoreHeightened fears of a global recession after Trump threatens Mexico with tariffs
With factory activity contracting in most of Asia last month, driven by the US – China trade war, central banks are being forced to review monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve potentially being forced to cut interest rates more than once this year. To compound recessionary fears, President Trump not only threatened to levy new…
Read MoreSterling under pressure as May fights for her political life
STERLING GBP/USD was little changed this morning having touched a fresh four-month low on Friday at $1.2711 on Brexit woes. Cross party talks to reach a Brexit deal that could make it through parliament collapsed on Friday although weekend press reports have suggested Theresa May plans to make a ‘bold offer’ to secure a deal.…
Read MoreTrump threatens China with increased tariffs
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index inched higher yesterday morning to 97.6 having declined on Friday’s jobs report as soft wage data overshadowed a strong non-farm payrolls print (+263,000) with the unemployment rate falling to 3.6%, a 50-year low. The Trump administration continued to raise the temperature in trade tensions with China yesterday, with top trade…
Read MoreSuper Thursday at the Bank of England
STERLING Brexit related developments haven taken somewhat of a backseat for the pound of late although GBP/USD dipped below 1.29 last week to a two-month low of 1.2865. The pair has inched higher overnight despite warnings from rating agencies on Friday that the UK rating is still at risk from a no-deal Brexit. Looking ahead,…
Read MoreCorbyn to be May’s next scapegoat?
STERLING Sterling continues to be driven by Brexit related developments and having flirted with $1.32 in the middle of last week, has drifted back towards the 1.30. Investors have welcomed what appears to be a reduced likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and a higher probability of a softer Brexit although this is still some way…
Read MoreTime running out for May
US DOLLAR The Dollar Index nursed a minor decline this morning although has maintained the 97.0 handle. The index touched a near three-week high on Friday at 97.27 after Michigan Sentiment and new home sales surpassed expectations. There was minimal reaction meanwhile to a slight downward revision to Q4 GDP on Thursday. Retail sales for…
Read MoreUS bond yield inverts
US DOLLAR Treasury yields pulled back from 15-month lows as investors reassessed the risks of a sharper downturn in the global economy. When the 10-year yield is lower than the three-year yield, it tends to signal that people are locking up money longer term because they fear a slowdown in business profits and its accompanying…
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