EURO The European Central Bank pushed back their rate guidance on Thursday and pledged to remain on hold at least through the first half of 2020. The Euro rallied in response as the Governing Council stopped short of opening the door to a rate cut. EUR/USD made further gains on Friday and closed above $1.13…

Read More

STERLING Sterling continues to be driven by Brexit related developments and having flirted with $1.32 in the middle of last week, has drifted back towards the 1.30. Investors have welcomed what appears to be a reduced likelihood of a no-deal Brexit and a higher probability of a softer Brexit although this is still some way…

Read More

US DOLLAR The Dollar Index nursed a minor decline this morning although has maintained the 97.0 handle. The index touched a near three-week high on Friday at 97.27 after Michigan Sentiment and new home sales surpassed expectations. There was minimal reaction meanwhile to a slight downward revision to Q4 GDP on Thursday. Retail sales for…

Read More

US DOLLAR Treasury yields pulled back from 15-month lows as investors reassessed the risks of a sharper downturn in the global economy. When the 10-year yield is lower than the three-year yield, it tends to signal that people are locking up money longer term because they fear a slowdown in business profits and its accompanying…

Read More

US DOLLAR The Dollar Index surrendered the 97 handle last week, weighed by a flurry of weaker-than-expected data releases including CPI, PPI and industrial production. This may factor into this Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision although most economists expect a wait-and-see stance after they dropped language in January that signalled further hikes were necessary. On the…

Read More

US DOLLAR The Dollar Index edged lower last week, hitting a two-week low on Wednesday at 96.29 but has started this week around 96.4. There was some mild volatility after the FOMC minutes while a pretty dismal retail sales report provided a weight and prompted a number of banks to trim their Q1 GDP forecasts.…

Read More

STERLING GBP/USD is nursing a small loss in Europe this morning having risen to a three-month high on Friday at 1.3214. Investors continue to fret around the risk of a no-deal Brexit with reports over the weekend suggesting Ireland have ruled out any changes to the backstop. Chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, has…

Read More

STERLING Sterling rose last week with GBP/USD topping out at a seven-week high on Friday at 1.2867. Gains on Friday were spurred by reports that cabinet ministers were looking to delay Brexit. Parliament are still scheduled to vote on Theresa May’s deal tomorrow with weekend press reports suggesting a Plan-B is being drawn up as…

Read More

What a year 2018 was; the royal wedding, never-ending summer sunshine, England’s fantastic world cup run, Trump trade wars, the worst year for stock markets in a decade, Theresa May surviving a no-confidence vote along with hearing the word ‘Brexit’ every other day… It’s not all doom and gloom as many in the media (and…

Read More