The Dollar Index spent most of last week with a 97 handle but surrendered it before the weekend after US retail sales dropped the most since September 2009, prompting a flurry of growth downgrades for the coming quarters. Elsewhere, lawmakers appear to have avoided another government shutdown for the time being and more US-China trade talks are scheduled for this week which should keep the Dollar on its toes.
President Trump was demanding $5.7 billion in funding for his wall although only managed to secure $1.4 billion last week, which will be spent on metal barriers as opposed to the concrete wall he promised in his election manifesto.
The FOMC minutes are out on Wednesday with durable goods and PMI on Thursday.
The pound edged higher early this morning, boosted by weekend press reports that suggested the EU were willing to offer some concessions in Brexit negotiations including legally binding changes to the backstop. GBP/USD did touch a one-month low on Thursday 1.2773 after Wednesday’s CPI data surprised to the downside.
Brexit developments will remain the key driver for the pound although jobs data due tomorrow will also be closely watched.
The Euro fell into weekend with EUR/USD touching a three-month low on Friday at 1.1299. This followed dovish remarks from the ECB’s Coeure who said a new LTRO is possible and that the Governing Council have been discussing it. EUR/USD has started the week with a modest bid meanwhile with EUR/USD just above 1.13.
Looking ahead, we await German ZEW tomorrow, Euro Zone consumer confidence on Wednesday, PMI on Thursday and CPI on Friday.
The Japanese Yen softened in the early stages of last week with USD/JPY touching an eight-week high on Thursday at 111.13 after domestic GDP surprised to the downside. This followed a sizeable jump in the pair on Monday although this has since been attributed to a ”fat-finger’ trade.
Trade figures are out on Tuesday followed by PMI and CPI on Thursday.
The Swiss Franc settled into a narrow trading range towards the end of last week with EUR/CHF between 1.1380-1.1330 for the last three days of the week. Thursday’s soft PPI data did weigh slightly although the perceived safe-haven current was more attentive to swings in broader risk sentiment.
The Australian Dollar strengthened into the weekend on rising trade optimism and has continued higher this morning with AUD/USD touching a fresh two week high at 0.7159. Data impulses were also supportive last week, including Australian NAB and Chinese trade figures. However, comments from the RBA’s Kent may have weighed somewhat as he welcomed the recent depreciation as helpful.
We await the RBA minutes tomorrow, PMI on Wednesday and labour market data on Thursday.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
The New Zealand Dollar rallied last week, boosted by the RBNZ policy statement which was a lot less dovish than many had expected. Rising trade optimism also played its part and the Kiwi Dollar has continued higher this morning with NZD/USD rising to a two-week high of 0.6894.
PPI figures are out tomorrow followed by credit card spending on Friday.
Rising oil prices continue to underpin the Canadian Dollar although gains were tempered somewhat last week by weaker-than-expected macro data. USD/CAD briefly got below the 1.32 handle on Wednesday before finding support.
Looking ahead, ADP employment is out Thursday followed by retail sales on Friday. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on Thursday.
The Swedish Krona saw a sharp jump higher last Wednesday following the Riksbank policy decision where they maintained that the next rate increase would come in H2. EUR/SEK dropped to a one-week low of 10.4036 but did bounce back on Thursday after mixed domestic jobs data.
CPI figures are out tomorrow are the only release of note this week.
The Norwegian Krone saw a modest strengthening last week, supported by rising oil prices and has inched higher again this morning as US crude futures moved above $56 a barrel. EUR/NOK is trading just above 9.75.
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