This Week in Markets: UK GDP in Focus, ECB Decision, and US Inflation Watch
Interest Rates & Inflation
| Region | Interest Rate | Inflation |
|---|---|---|
| UK | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| EU | 2.15% | 2.1% |
| US | 4.5% | 2.7% |
GBP
Friday 12th – GDP (MoM)
- What is it? The main measure of UK economic activity, tracking the total value of goods and services produced monthly.
- Previous: 0.4% | Consensus: 0.0%
- Market impact: A weaker print could weigh on GBP, as slower growth reduces foreign investment appeal. A stronger reading would support the pound.
EUR
Thursday 11th – ECB Interest Rate Decision
- What is it? The refinancing rate set by the European Central Bank, announced eight times a year.
- Previous: 2.15% | Consensus: 2.15%
- Market impact: Markets expect no change. A surprise hike would boost EUR as investors chase higher returns, while a cut would likely weaken the currency.
USD
Wednesday 10th – PPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
- Previous: 3.7% | Consensus: —
- Market impact: Higher-than-expected PPI would strengthen USD; a weaker reading would have the opposite effect.
Thursday 11th – CPI (YoY)
- Previous: 2.7% | Consensus: 2.9%
- Market impact: If inflation rises as expected, it could add pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer, supporting USD.
Key Market Updates
- UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans tax rises in the Autumn (28 Oct – 4 Nov) to address a £41bn fiscal gap.
- US jobs data softened, with unemployment at 4.3% — prompting renewed bets on multiple Fed rate cuts.
- UK inflation remains sticky compared with other major economies.
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump over attempts to remove her.
- Google fined €3bn by the EU over ad-tech dominance, further straining US–EU relations.
- Angela Rayner resigned as UK Deputy PM following a property tax scandal.
Why this matters
This week’s data releases and political developments could create volatility in FX markets. Businesses and individuals with upcoming currency requirements should monitor these events closely, as even small movements in exchange rates can materially impact costs and profits. Our team can help you put strategies in place to protect against adverse moves and take advantage of opportunities.
📞 Call us on 020 3876 5432 or 📧 email [email protected] to discuss how we can support your currency needs this week.